Why Do Horse Racing Systems Fail? Part 2

You read the sales page for the latest Horse Racing System that is convincing.  You check out their two years worth of results that are spectacular. You plunk down your hard earned money and wait anxiously for the system to arrive in your email.  Once you have the system you log on to your favourite betting exchange and start to place your bets.  You then watch your bank start to dwindle.

Sad isn’t it?

So what causes this sudden departure from historical results?

The answer is very simple, the unscrupulous seller has preformed magic with those statistics.

Here is how it works.  The seller has analyzed horse racing statistics going back two years.  They find a pattern that is profitable but nothing to write home about.  They then start to filter those results down.  Their initial analysis may yield them five picks a day.  They filter those results down to just two picks a day by removing losing bets.  The idea is that they start to analyze losing picks to see if they can adjust their criteria and produce a more profitable horse racing system.

The reality is that producing systems this way has nothing to do with future results.  This is different from analyzing the form based on sound criteria to pick your horses.  Even if the seller started with sound criteria do you believe that they would not be tempted to then filter those past  results to make them look better?

Once the seller has a system that looks horse racing competition good on paper they will then contact their affiliates who will write positive reviews based on a short period of time actually testing the system.  Those reviews will rely heavily on those positive past results.

How can you tell if a horse racing system has been over filtered?

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